Britain:The end of hoo-ha politics?
Sunak's Northern Ireland deal opens the way for method over madness
Politics is a funny old game. One minute a party seems hellbent on self-destruction, like Wile E. Coyote running over a cliff momentarily floating on air, oblivious of the void beneath, before dropping like a stone. The next it’s back on dry land, reprieved by a twist of fate.
Both main British parties – Labour and Conservative – have been through this near-death experience over the last two electoral cycles. First Labour elected the unelectable Jeremy Corbyn as leader. He led the party to a catastrophic defeat in 2019. He eviscerated its reputation as the party of the patriotic working class. This led directly to the collapse of the Red Wall, scuppering any chances of genuine social and economic reform.
The Conservatives were captured by an oddball anti-woke coalition of rabid free-marketeers and little England nationalists driven by grievances real and imagined. They were led by a man whose only yardstick for success was his own advancement.
Boris Johnson would say anything, do anything and sacrifice anybody to hold on to power. In the end people just stopped believing. The Tories then went on to elect Liz Truss, an act of delusion driven by desperation.
Now two, fresh actors are at the helm of their respective parties. Wily E. Coyote is back on terra firma.
Sir Keir Starmer, in his quiet, plodding way has repaired much of the damage done by Corbyn. The polls suggest he is on course to lead Labour to victory at the next election despite the continued opacity of his platform and his ho-hum personality.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pulled off an impressive feat with his Northern Ireland deal. It bookends the Good Friday agreement, restores civility and reason to relations with the EU, our biggest trading partner, and pulls the rug from under the rednecks in the ERG. Sunak judged, rightly, that people are fed up with drama. He is, finally, like Starmer, his own man.
Electing Liz Truss was an act of delusion driven by desperation
Which raises the following question: Is this the end of hoo-ha politics and the start of a new period of rational discourse where facts matter more than prejudice and the debate is no longer dominated by who shouts loudest?
Is Britain, after the delirium triggered by Brexit and five Prime Ministers in seven years, about to become governable again at home and respected abroad? Because, heaven knows, it needs to.
The departure of Nicola Sturgeon, as leader of the Scottish nationalists – adds to the odds of a fresh start for a teetering Union. Sturgeon, like her New Zealand counterpart Jacinda Arden, was worn down by high office.
But she quit because she knew in her heart of hearts that Scottish independence – her life’s work - wasn’t going to happen anytime soon.
The impetus for independence remains. But there’s an opportunity for a new settlement to shore up the Union based on greater empathy by Westminster and greater realism in Holyrood.
The Northern Ireland deal was not, to be clear, a rabbit pulled out of the hat. It’s main elements have been in the works for some time. It just needed, quiet, patient, smart footwork to get it over the line – plus some political courage.
Can Sunak now apply the same principles - less headbutting more thought, less grandstanding more statecraft – to the other areas of policy that urgently need attention: public sector strikes, immigration, trade?
Other entrenched problems that scar Britain will not be tackled let alone solved by a Tory government: poverty, inequality of opportunity, discrimination, our appalling record on the treatment of people with disabilities or mental health problems.
These are essentially social problems that do not lend themselves to a right-wing Tory government shorn of its one-nation credentials.
But there is hope. A more rational approach to governing, less virtue-signalling, more discipline in the ranks, clearer, more achievable objectives, less pie-in-the-sky economics, fewer culture wars, will lead to greater competence.
This will hopefully be felt in Whitehall, the engine room of government, where morale among civil servants took a real hammering in the Johnson years.
In many ways Sunak and Starmer are quite alike. They’re both technocrats. At the same time they are very different from Corbyn and Johnson who, in turn, shared some of the same flaws, the most dangerous of which was an overweening belief in their own rectitude.
Labour still looks like a winner next time round. An unprecedented fifth victory for the Tories is a big ask. But it’s not a done deal. Starmer’s heavily-trailed programme for government remains vague and critically short of detail. He has alienated the Left and there will be a price to pay for that.
If Sunak can bring his party to heel he can start working through his in-tray with method rather than madness. It’s a huge task.
The Brexit Ultras will not easily forgive him for saying that Northern Ireland now has the best of both worlds as part of the UK internal market and the European single market, blindingly obvious though that is.
But perhaps, just perhaps, this is a moment when the pendulum ceases to swing wildly and Britain enters a period of calm before choosing its next government.